Imagine this – it’s the 20th of January 2017 – Donald Trump Sr places his hand on the Bible in front of a crowd of over thousands and millions of viewers watching from around the world , swears to “Preserve , Protect and defend the Constitution of the United States”.
Whilst Inauguration day is just over a year away , I’d like to take a moment to discuss the possible ramifications of Republican Front Runner Donald Trump coming out on top as the new President of the United States.
As of late Trump has been able to remind us countless times that he is an eccentric outspoken brash maverick. He’s made countless enemies with his proposal to ban Muslims. His fellow Republicans have criticized him after he insulted Prisoner’s of War (POWs) such as John McCain. But the question on my mind right now is what will happen if he wins?
Trump the Negotiator
I can’t deny the fact that Trump is an Entrepreneur – and an excellent one at that. He is a ruthless negotiator albeit a successful one and he gets what he wants, as shown by the fortune he’s amassed over time. Oddly enough I believe that diplomatic ties with Russia are likely to strengthen. In his annual press conference President Vladimir Putin offered high praise to the Republican Front Runner stating that he is an outstanding TV personality and the absolute leader of the Presidential Race. Donald Trump later returned the favor by saying that he and Putin “would get along very well”. For all those Americans who do not wish to see Russia as their main adversary once again, this sure is good news.
His connections in the corporate world are likely to give him valuable insights into the economics of different parts of the world. He probably has a lot of realistic insights that may give him the edge over other purely political candidates – maybe this could be the win-win situation which the US needs when it comes to diplomatic ties.
The only issue I foresee is the fact that his ego is likely to get in the way of most diplomatic negotiations. That loud mouth attitude and personality isn’t certainly going to give him any leeway when it comes to negotiating with countries such as Iran or China and maybe even Russia.
Once again I will be drawing on Trump’s experiences as a Business Leader. Hypothetically speaking were Trump to become President, would he be able to create a group of individuals who will aid him in his quest as President ? The Answer is probably no. He simply doesn’t have experience necessary to do so, many of his past dealings involve him steamrolling over everyone else and getting what he wants when he wants . Now by the time we reach the situation I described at the beginning of this article – Trump is likely to have ostracized himself and become a Pariah so to speak , meaning that he won’t be surrounded by the stream Yes Men and Women, emblematic of a President-elect. I sense trouble afoot on President Trump’s bandwagon.
Trump the Economist
He’s done a brilliant job of making himself rich, but can he make the Patriotic State even richer ? Some of Trumps major campaign points include reduced tax rates which would lead to 11% growth in the GDP, 6.5% higher wages and 29% larger capital stock as well as 5.3 million jobs and on top of that Trump aims to bring back outsourced jobs , things just can’t seem to get any better can they ?
No wait they can ! Trump eloquently reminded spectators at the CNBC debate that he came out on top of not one but four bankruptcies. Apparently this itself is the qualification the previous 44 Presidents lacked when it came to tackling America’s debts problem. I bet many American Economists will be able to sleep easily at night knowing that the answer to America’s $19 Trillion Debt is Republican Front Runner Donald Trump!
So Tax cuts and more jobs would lead to faster economic growth and a bigger economy, brilliant if you ask me , as long as we ignore the fact that the budget deficit and budget debt would rise. One thing is for sure, if he runs America to bankruptcy, Trump will surely show a profit out of it.
Trump swears to bring back jobs outsourced to China, Japan and Mexico. So as a result he would creating numerous jobs for the American Citizen. His proposed immigration law is likely to shrink the labor force by roughly 11 million. The result would be both demand and supply are likely to be effected as firms which depend on immigrant labor particularly agricultural firms will face drops in income and increases in food prices. Consumer goods are also likely to be greatly affected if things like electronics manufacturing is done in the US.
Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, John McLaren noted that for every immigrant 1.2 jobs are created. The mass deportation of immigrants courtesy of Donald Trump is likely to adversely affect local businesses who cater to the immigrant market and thus devastate small urban economies.
Okay, so if Trump were to win it won’t be the end of world, or America for that matter. The country will progress the same way it did with the previous 44 Presidents – maybe slower than in the liberal Obama sense. Taxes will be reduced, jobs brought back and walls will be built (finally some public works to boost construction jobs). As long as Trump chooses the correct administration to back him up, its likely that the country will make some decent progress. But unfortunately he might have bandwagon issues thanks to his loudmouth. If things go awry let’s just remember the fact that US does operate on a system of Checks and Balances and Trump will be opposed if things do get out of hand , so worry not. On the other hand I might have forgotten, the Republican controlled Congress barely managed to agree on a Speaker of the House and the Senate is on average 60 years old. Wonder if they’ll remember to oppose the loudmouth Trump’s bigotry.